with Erwin Winkler
Abstract A large literature suggests that growing international trade is among the drivers of rising labor earnings inequality within countries. We contribute to this literature by studying the distributional effects of Germany’s trade integration with China and Eastern Europe. We provide evidence that the trade shock explains 5–18% of the rise in earnings inequality between individual workers. However, when we take risk sharing between partners into account, we find that the inequality-increasing effect of the trade shock is up to 42% lower. Our results therefore suggest that a pure worker-level perspective which ignores risk sharing might give an incomplete picture of the distributional effects of international trade.
In: European Economic Review, 2019, 111, 305-335.
Fig.: Predicted impact along the earnings distribution
Abstract This study examines the effect of substantial changes in parental leave regulations on the non-cognitive development of children aged between 0 and 3 years. I exploit a large and unanticipated parental leave reform in Germany as a natural experiment. Since the first of January 2007, the replacement of a means-tested by an earnings-related system led to a gain in benefits for wealthier families whereas needier parents receive a lower overall benefit amount than before the reform. I detect a significant negative effect of this change in the parental leave system on the socio-emotional development of newborns and it turns out that children from loser-families drive this effect. The parental leave reform does not have a significant impact on 2–3-year-olds’ skills and development on average and the difference between children from losers and winners does also not persist in the longer run. I only find suggestive evidence that an increase in benefits improves some skills of 2–3-year-olds if compared to those who experience reductions in benefits.
In: Review of Economics of the Household, 2019, 17(1), 89-119.
Tab.: Reform effects 0-1 year old children
Abstract Surveys are an indispensable source of data for applied economic research; however, their reliance on self-reported information can introduce bias, especially if core variables such as personal income are misreported. To assess the extent and impact of this misreporting bias, we compare self-reported wages from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) with administrative wages from social security records (IEB) for the same individuals. Using a novel and unique data linkage (SOEP-ADIAB), we identify a modest but economically significant reporting bias, with SOEP respondents underreporting their administrative wages by about 7.3%. This misreporting varies systematically with individual, household, and especially job and firm characteristics. In replicating common empirical analyses in which wages serve as either dependent or independent variables, we find that misreporting is consequential for some, but not all estimated relationships. It turns out to be inconsequential for examining the returns to education, but relevant for analyzing the gender wage gap. In addition we find that misreporting bias can significantly affect the results when wage is used as the independent variable. Specifically, estimates of the wage-satisfaction relationship are substantially overestimated when based on survey data, although this bias is mitigated when focusing on interpersonal changes. Our findings underscore that survey-based measures of individual wages can significantly bias commonly estimated empirical relationships. They also demonstrate the enormous research potential of linked administrative-survey data.
Revise & Resubmit at Journal of Labor Economics.
arXiv:2411.04751 (last updated in November 2024)
Fig.: Distribution of gross monthly wages
with Geske Rolvering
Abstract This study investigates the impact of public child care on maternal employment and career trajectories in West Germany, focusing on qualitative dimensions such as job responsibilities and task content of the job. Using an event study methodology and combining social security and county-level child care data, we analyze the effects of child care reforms on mothers up to ten years post-childbirth. While public child care significantly accelerates mothers' return to the labor market, it does not enhance average career quality indicators such as managerial roles, employment in jobs with abstract tasks, or wage positioning within the firm. Notably, mothers in flexible, family-friendly work environments gain the most from child care reforms, benefiting from improved career continuity and access to demanding jobs. Conversely, mothers in occupations with high career penalties see limited advantages. These findings highlight the interplay between public policy and labor market structures in shaping gender equality. The results suggest that public child care needs to be complemented by workplace flexibility to optimize career outcomes for mothers. Robustness checks confirm the validity of the findings, accounting for pre-birth differences, selective migration, and fertility impacts. This work extends existing literature by exploring long-term effects on both employment rates and career quality, emphasizing the need for integrated policy and organizational reforms to promote gender equity.
IZA DP No. 16433, earlier version available as CEPA DP No. 64.
Media Coverage: idw, Digitales Forschungsmagazin University of Passau, Bildungsklick.
Fig.: Effects of child care on employment in a demanding job
with Marco Caliendo, Deborah Cobb-Clark, Harald Pfeifer, Arne Uhlendorff, Sophie Wagner
Abstract We examine how gender shapes managers’ decisions regarding on-the-job training using a discrete choice experiment embedded in a representative survey of German firms. While previous research on training has focused on employees’ demand for it, we make a contribution by studying firms’ supply of training. In our vignette study, 1,144 managers evaluate hypothetical candidate profiles that differ by gender, age, competence, job mobility, and training characteristics. We find that women are somewhat more likely than men to receive training offers. The exceptions are that female managers are more reluctant to choose young women for training, while male managers favor male candidates for fully employer-funded training. These patterns persist across various model specifications and remain robust when controlling for observable manager characteristics. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that female managers are more reluctant to offer training to women when they operate in competitive product markets, male-dominated industries, and firms without collective bargaining agreements. More broadly, our results highlight that managers influence not only how much training is undertaken, but also how training opportunities are distributed among employees. This has the potential to create gender disparities in early career development that may have implications for organizational equity.
Fig.: Gender gap in marginal effects for all, female, male managers
with Marco Caliendo, Louis Klobes
Abstract This paper examines how worker and firm characteristics shape workers' participation in on-the-job training in the context of Germany's dynamic labor market transformations, including technological advancements, automation, and globalization. Utilizing the novel SOEP-CMI-ADIAB7521 dataset, which integrates detailed survey data on individuals with their administrative employment histories and the firm environment, we explore whether the individual worker's decision to participate in training is determined rather by the worker's characteristics or by the firm environment. Due to the linked nature of our dataset, we are also able to investigate the role of interactive effects of worker and firm characteristics. In addition, we exploit exogenous industry-level variation in exposure to trade shocks and robot penetration that we use as proxies for the need to update skills to estimate causal effects in instrumental variable strategies. This paper delivers three main results. First, we provide evidence that training participation depends up to 30% on worker characteristics, 34% on job and occupational information and 25% on the firm environment. Second, some relevant individual characteristics like the worker's gender affect training decisions differently depending on the firm environment which further highlights the importance of the worker-firm interplay for training participation. Finally, behavioral traits such as locus of control moderate training responses to exogenous labor market shocks, including trade and automation exposure. Specifically, while increased import exposure raises training participation, export exposure dampens it, and these effects vary by workers' locus of control. These insights underscore the need for targeted, context-sensitive policies that integrate worker traits and firm environments to enhance on-the-job-training uptake and align workforce skills with evolving labor market demands.
Tab.: OLS & IV regressions - training, LoC and trade shocks
with Ann-Kristin Reitmann
Abstract This research explores the long-term impact of the European witch trials on modern gender norms and women's participation in the labour market. Between the 13th and 19th centuries, around one million people, predominantly women, were persecuted for witchcraft, with the most intense periods of persecution occurring during the 16th and 17th centuries. These prosecutions often targeted women who challenged traditional gender roles, including those who were independent, educated, or employed. We hypothesise that the witch trials led to a society in which fear and social conformity were widespread, and this in turn resulted in the reinforcement of patriarchal norms, with long-lasting effects on women's social and economic roles. Drawing on literature that explores the lasting impact of historical events, we will examine whether regions with a higher historical incidence of witch trials exhibit more conservative gender attitudes and lower female labour force participation today. Using a variety of historical and contemporary data sources, we plan to employ correlational and instrumental variable approaches to isolate causal effects. By shedding light on how historical misogyny may persistently influence contemporary gender outcomes, this study deepens our understanding of cultural persistence and informs efforts to address gender inequality in modern societies.
with Erwin Winkler
Abstract In this research, we want to examine the role of risk sharing within households, with a particular focus on the interaction between regional labour market shocks and gender norms in Germany. Previous literature highlights that women, low-skilled workers and non-manufacturing workers benefit from informal risk-sharing mechanisms at the household level during economic shocks. Building on this, our study investigates how both existing mating structures and partners' active labor market adjustments in response to (positive and negative) labor market shocks contribute to mitigating or amplifying the impact of such shocks. Specifically, we analyze the influence of gender norms on the 'added worker effect', whereby partners adjust their labour supply in response to economic stress on the other partner. By examining regional differences in both the incidence of labour market shocks and prevailing gender norms, we aim to understand how socio-cultural factors shape households' ability to deal with economic shocks and to adapt to changing labour market conditions in general. The results will improve our understanding of risk-sharing mechanisms at the household level and help policymakers to design policies that, for example, support households with limited capacity to cope with shocks.
with Marco Caliendo, Thomas Dohmen
Abstract This paper investigates the causal effect of individuals’ contact to migrants at the workplace on individual-level party and voting preferences as well as on interest in politics and political participation. Using a shift share instrument based on the initial distribution of migrants between firms and a large influx of migrants to Germany in the years around the refugee crisis in 2015, we do not find strong evidence in favor of or against the contact hypothesis developed by Allport et al. (1954), i.e. a higher share of migrants at the workplace does not significantly affect individuals’ party preferences in any direction. We however show that a higher share of migrant co-workers tends to shift individuals’ political attitudes more towards the right end of the political scale and that there is a significant positive effect on the probability that workers participate in political activities at least once a month. With this individual-level evidence on the contact hypothesis, we complement the rather inconclusive literature investigating regional level exposure to migrants and local voting outcomes.